Household vulnerability to poverty: an empirical analysis of six metropolitan regions (2002 to 2011)
Please cite the paper as:
“Solange Ledi Gonçalves and Ana Flávia Machado, (2014), Household vulnerability to poverty: an empirical analysis of six metropolitan regions (2002 to 2011), World Economics Association (WEA) Conferences, No. 1 2014, Is a more inclusive and sustainable development possible in Brazil?, 5th May to 12th August 2014”
With studies on poverty displaying methodological and concept complexity, and in light of works on the factors responsible for the poverty phenomenon, researchers of the issue have reached a consensus about the multidimensional character and the complexity of this social problem. Many studies have, besides this, cast light on the dynamic character of the poverty phenomenon – i.e., that poverty cycles propagate themselves, as well as that individuals and households both enter and exit a situation of deprivation. In this context, studies about vulnerability to poverty emerge. Vulnerability to poverty is the current likelihood of falling into poverty in the future. This paper intends to contribute to the literature on vulnerability to poverty in Brazil by estimating the probability, in a given period, of households entering poverty in the subsequent year, based on data from the Monthly Employment Survey (Pesquisa Mensal de Emprego – PME (IBGE)), for the 2002 to 2011 period. We carry out analyses for six metropolitan regions: São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte, Porto Alegre, Salvador and Recife. Household income is defined as an indicator of well-being. The results reveal a decrease in vulnerability over the analysed period. Additionally, this decrease is even more pronounced when other earnings – such as pensions, private and public transfers, earnings from investments and rent – are added to labour income. Furthermore, it is possible to verify that the vulnerability associated with labour income is more connected to permanent poverty, while the vulnerability related to total earnings is better distributed amongst the poverty categories. Being male, having higher education and a successful insertion in the formal labour market are characteristics of heads of household associated to a lower likelihood of household income falling below a certain poverty line in the next period. Thus, the results suggest that public policies aiming at better access to formal education and vocational training programmes are important to decrease household vulnerability to poverty in the Brazilian metropolitan regions.